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Eskom’s stable power system positions it to meet holiday season demand, with unplanned outages down 1 264MW, EAF rising

4 months ago
in Company
Reading Time: 5 mins read
Eskom issues alert of high risk of loadshedding following over ten months of uninterrupted power supply – Summer Outlook remains unchanged.
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Eskom’s power system remains stable as unplanned outages fall by 3 338MW to their lowest level in nine years today, while the EAF continues to rise

Eskom’s stable power system positions it to meet festive season demand, with unplanned outages down 1 805MW, EAF rising, and diesel use continuing to decline

Joint Media Statement: Eskom and Merafong City Local Municipality sign Distribution Agency Agreement (DAA) to strengthen electricity provision, financial stability, and service delivery

Friday, 19 December 2025: The national power system remains stable, consistently meeting demand as Eskom’s generation performance continues to improve. The success of the Generation Recovery Plan, combined with the intensified planned maintenance implemented last year, has strengthened the fleet and enhanced operational resilience. These achievements position Eskom to reliably meet peak festive season demand, support economic activity and reinforce energy security for South Africa.

The Energy Availability Factor (EAF), which measures the percentage of time the generation fleet is available to produce electricity, stands at 66.12% for the month-to-date in December 2025. This represents a significant improvement of 8.43% compared to 57.69% recorded during the same period last year.

Year-to-date, EAF has increased to 63.85%, with the fleet achieving or exceeding the 70% benchmark on 39 occasions. These results demonstrate both recovery and sustained improvement in generation performance, reinforcing energy security and grid stability.

The improvement in EAF is largely attributable to a continued reduction in unplanned outages, alongside a moderate decline in planned maintenance levels.

For the period from 12 to 18 December 2025, the average Unplanned Capacity Loss Factor (UCLF), which measures capacity lost due to unplanned outages, stands at 22.46%. This reflects an improvement of 2.96% compared to 25.42% recorded during the same period last year.

From 12 to 18 December 2025, Eskom’s average unplanned outages decreased to 10 701MW, down from 11 965MW during the same period last year. This year-on-year reduction of 1 264MW in breakdowns reflects the impact of the Generation Recovery Plan and the intensive maintenance undertaken in the previous year, which has strengthened the reliability and resilience of the generation fleet.

During the same period, the average Planned Capacity Loss Factor (PCLF) stood at 11.84%, compared to 17.49% recorded last year. The lower level of planned maintenance follows Eskom’s intensive maintenance programme implemented in the previous year—above historical norms over the past three years—to restore fleet reliability. The effectiveness of this approach is reflected in the sustained decline in unplanned outages.

Planned maintenance continues to align with Eskom’s maintenance schedule and forms part of ongoing efforts to improve plant reliability, operational consistency, and long-term fleet performance.

The continued improvement in EAF has significantly reduced Eskom’s reliance on costly diesel generation, allowing the company to focus more on cost-effective primary energy sources. Additionally, 6 858MW is currently on cold reserve due to excess capacity.

Over the past week, diesel expenditure was R40.8 million, due to commissioning tests following a major outage on Gourikwa Unit 22, with minimal usage for the system. This low consumption reflects both the cost savings and operational improvements achieved through Eskom’s turnaround efforts.

Year-to-date, diesel expenditure remains consistently below budget.

South Africa has now experienced 217 consecutive days without an interrupted supply, with only 26 hours of loadshedding recorded in April and May during this financial year.

To maintain a stable electricity supply, Eskom will bring 4 670MW of generation capacity online ahead of the evening peak on Monday, 22 December 2025. Today’s evening peak demand is forecast at 22 207MW, supported by 25 902MW of available capacity, giving the system a healthy margin above current demand.

Eskom published the Summer Outlook on 5 September 2025, covering the period 1 September 2025 to 31 March 2026, which projects no loadshedding due to sustained improvements in plant performance from the Generation Recovery Plan.

Key Performance Highlights

  • Year-to-date, the UCLF further reduced to 24.25%, reflecting a week-on-week improvement of approximately 0.05% and remaining below last year’s 24.99%.
  • Year to date, planned maintenance was at an average of 5 385MW, accounting for 11.46% of total generation capacity, similar to last week’s 11.45% but slightly lower than the 11.97% over the same period last year.
  • Between 1 April and 18 December 2025, Eskom generated 1 049.38GWh from OCGT plants, incurring diesel costs of R6.232 billion. This is lower than the 1 299.19GWh produced during the same period last year at a cost of R8.127 billion. Notably, diesel consumption has been declining steadily month-on-month since May 2025, and the load factor for December month-to-date is 0.44%.
  • The year-to-date OCGT load factor has decreased to 4.89%, reflecting a 0.10% improvement from the previous week. This is lower than the 6.05% recorded during the same period last year and remains below the set target.

Progress in ending load reduction: 84 366 customers no longer affected during peak periods

Although the power system remains stable and generation capacity continues to exceed demand, illegal connections and meter tampering persist, causing infrastructure damage and posing serious safety risks. In response, Eskom continues to implement load reduction as a temporary measure in high-risk areas to protect both communities and the electricity network.

To address these challenges sustainably, Eskom has launched a phased programme to eliminate load reduction by 2027. The programme targets 971 feeders and will benefit approximately 1.69 million customers across all provinces, out of Eskom’s total customer base of 7.2 million. Key interventions include the rollout of smart meters, the integration of Distributed Energy Resources, and the expansion of Free Basic Electricity support.

Progress on key interventions

Eskom has installed and uploaded 68,240 smart meters for feeders affected by load reduction, with over 90% of these installations in Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo, and KwaZulu-Natal. The programme aims to install a total of 577,347 meters by March 2026, with full completion expected in 2027. Current progress represents approximately 11.8% of the target, and installations are continuing to ensure the goal is met.

  • Feeders removed from load reduction:

A total of 52 feeders has been removed from load reduction to date. This includes 11 feeders in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, achieving about 30% of the provincial target of 37; about 37 feeders in Gauteng, representing approximately 29% of the target of 126; and 4 feeders in the Eastern and Western Cape, equating to around 27% of the target of 15.

Nationally, the 52 feeders removed from load reduction represent about 19% of the overall target of 271 feeders to be removed from load reduction by March 2026.

Efforts continue to accelerate feeder removals to meet both provincial and national targets.

The removal of these feeders has benefited approximately 84,366 customers: 27,855 in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 48,876 in Gauteng, and 7,635 in the Eastern and Western Cape. This progress reduces the number of customers still targeted for load reduction removal to 91,769 in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, 96,606 in Gauteng, and 17,867 in the Eastern and Western Cape by financial year-end. Nationally, 492,981 customers (85.39% of the target) remain to be cleared by the end of the financial year (March 2026).

  • Free Basic Electricity (FBE):

Nationally, registrations have increased from 485,000 to 579,360 customers, a growth of 19.5%, representing 27.6% of the 2.1 million eligible customers. There has been no change compared to the previous week.

Eskom is harnessing technology, upgrading infrastructure, and partnering with communities to ensure a safer, smarter, and more reliable power network for South Africa.

Eskom calls on communities to report illegal connections, use electricity responsibly, and protect infrastructure. Any illegal activity affecting Eskom’s infrastructure can be reported to the Eskom Crime Line at 0800 112 722 or via WhatsApp at 081 333 3323.

Eskom will provide its next update on Friday, 26 December 2025, or communicate any significant developments as they occur.

ENDS

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